Bloomberg - Analistul care a prezis victoria lui Trump prezice acum victoria lui Marine Le Pen. "Jumătate dintre cei de centru-dreapta şi cei de extremă-stângă nu vor vota cu Macron în turul II"
Iată pe scurt, detaliate de noi, calculele principale prezentate de analist.
Dacă de exemplu, Melonchon face 20% şi Filon 18% în primul tur, jumătate dintre acești votanți nu vor vota cu Macron în turul II.
Dacă Macron face 22%-24% în primul tur (la fel ca Le Pen), el va putea adăuga doar încă 10+9=19% dintre votanții lui Filon şi Melonchon. Chiar dacă Macron va adăuga încă 5% din cei 10% votanți ai lui Hammon, Macron va putea ajunge doar la maxim 48%.
Vestea proastă pentru Macron este că în afară de aceste zone de electorat, în acest moment există 40% de votanți indeciși care cu siguranță nu sunt adepții globalismului mondial reprezentat de Macron.
Prin urmare, oricare ar fi procentul în care indecişii din primul tur se vor prezenta în turul II la vot, cel mai probabil ei vor vota anti-sistem, adică vor vota 2/3 pentru Le Pen şi doar 1/3 pentru Macron. Cu cât participarea la vot va fi mai mare în turul II fată de Turul I, cu atât şansele ca Marine Le Pen să câștige sunt mai mari.
Dacă Melonchon îl depăseşte pe Macron în Turul I, aproape toți dintre votanții lui Fillon vor vota cu Le Pen în turul doi şi jumătate din votanții globalişti ai lui Macron nu vor vota cu un comunist de modă veche ca Melonchon.
Prin urmare conchide analistul singurul care are şanse mari să o înfrângă pe Le Pen în turul II este Fillon care fiind mai la centru față de Le Pen dar şi globalist ca Macron, va fi preferat în turul II atât de votanții lui Melonchon cât şi de cei ai lui Macron. Problema că Fillon ocupă locul patru în sondaje cu 17%-19% şi are şanse minime să intre în turul II
Bloomberg - Analyst Who Predicted Trump’s Ascendancy Bets on Le Pen Win
Undecided voters bad news for Macron, says GaveKal’s founder
Le Pen vs. Melenchon Runoff Is Disaster, Says Adam Posen
How Will Markets React to Elections in France?
Don’t bank on a relief rally in the euro area anytime soon.
Markets are underpricing the prospect of Marine Le Pen emerging victorious in the French election as a sea of undecided voters throws into sharp relief pronounced apathy for center-leftist Emmanuel Macron -- the front-runner by a whisker -- and the backlash against the European Union project.
That’s the conclusion drawn by Charles Gave, founder of Hong-Kong based asset-allocation consultancy GaveKal Research, who predicted the triumph of Donald Trump in the U.S. election, and is now betting on a win for the anti-euro National Front candidate.
“Le Pen’s momentum is a slow-moving reaction against the men of Davos -- as we have seen with Brexit and Trump -- but markets don’t want to believe it,” he said by phone before the first round of the French poll on April 23.
Given the prospect of a Le Pen victory, Gave, who has been researching tactical asset allocation for more than 40 years, is advising clients to adopt long positioning in the pound as the U.K. would benefit from haven bids, and shorts on inflation-linked German bonds amid the risk of deflation in the euro area.
The French economist also recommends bets on the likely outperformance of publicly-listed European multinationals, given their outsize share of income in foreign currencies. In effect, for investors obliged to invest liquidity in euros, Gave says a basket of high-quality stocks is a safer bet than euro-denominated government bonds.
“The market is talking about the nightmare scenario but it’s not pricing it in” said Mark Tinker, head of AXA Framlington Asia. Tinker’s a GaveKal client, and admirer of Gave’s tail-risk warnings over the past year.
“After Sunday, we will have more information to make a considered risk-return wager to trade and hedge, but high-quality European companies and German bonds look like an attractive bet,” Tinker said.
Markets are pining for a scenario that would preserve the status quo: Macron, an independent candidate, defeating Le Pen in the second round on May 7. Thursday saw something of a French relief rally, with strong demand at a government debt auction, while France’s benchmark CAC 40 Index rose 1.5 percent as polls showed Macron pulling marginally ahead of Le Pen.
The euro held steady on Friday and French bonds gained after a police officer was shot in Paris, which may influence the outcome of the first-round vote, according to some analysts. The CAC 40 dropped for the first time in three days, declining 0.5 percent.
The stars, however, appear to be aligning for the National Front candidate, said Gave. The fact two candidates for the runoff are likely to be determined by voters who have yet to make up their minds -- as many as 40 percent -- is a bad omen for the centrist contender, he said.
At least half of the far-left and half of the center-right won’t vote for Macron in the second round if he is pitted against Le Pen, believing he is“tainted” by his association with Francois Hollande’s government, and would rather abstain, Gave said.
Supporters of Francois Fillon, a center-right candidate whose momentum has been curtailed by graft charges, and a sizable chunk of Macron’s followers would probably rally to Le Pen’s cause if she were to face leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the final round, according to Gave. He sees only Fillon with a chance to defeat Le Pen in the run-off.
If she emerges victorious, the euro would tank as markets would price in the prospect of its dissolution, rather than focus on Le Pen’s legislative hurdles to exit the single-currency bloc. French and Italian bonds will be “unquotable” given vanishing bids, and the European banking system would be beset by seismic turmoil, he said.